主题｜Topic：Adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase
时间｜Time：11月15日（周三）10: 00-12: 00 AM
陈帅，北京大学博士，浙江大学长聘副教授、研究员、博士生导师。任教于浙江大学中国农村发展研究院（卡特）、浙江大学公共管理学院，担任浙江大学农业与农村发展研究所副所长、农经副系主任。研究领域包括农业经济学、资源环境经济学和发展经济学，围绕气候变化与中国农业、空气污染的社会经济影响等议题开展研究。学术成果发表在 Journal of Development Economics (JDE)、Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economics (JAERE)、Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (JEEM)、Journal of Economic Geography (JEG)、《经济学(季刊)》 等国内外经济学顶尖期刊；主持包括浙江省杰出青年科学基金、教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目和国家自科基金在内多个科研项目。2022年入选教育部重大青年人才计划特聘教授，2021年入选浙江大学“仲英青年学者”、2020年获评“中国青年农业经济学家年度学者”。
An emerging argument is that since humans can readily adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is less need to pursue aggressive emissions mitigation strategies. As temperature adaptation is a function of repeated exposure over time, we need empirical approaches that can faithfully depict individuals’ temperature history to rigorously examine this claim. Using a longitudinal dataset representative of China, we construct lifetime temperature exposure unique to each individual based on their birth-dates, birth-locations, and movement history. We show that a 1°C increase in individualized temperature anomalies cause a 2% decrease in 1 S.D. of well-being, where most of the impacts are driven by “hotter-than-expected” weather. In turn, we show that while the adverse impacts of future temperature changes wane after accommodating for adaptation, acclimatization is unlikely to keep pace with future temperature increases except in the net-zero emissions scenario, indicating that stringent GHG emissions cuts are still needed even in this less-pessimistic scenario.