主题｜Topic：Time-Consistent Fiscal Policy: Cyclical Properties and Political Cycles
时间｜Time：11月15日（周三）14: 30-16: 00
冯志钢，美国内布拉斯加大学奥马哈分校经济学副教授。研究领域为宏观经济学、公共财政学、及机器学习在宏观经济学的应用，研究成果发表在 International Economic Review, Quantitative Economics, Economic Theory, Review of Economic Dynamics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 等国际著名经济学期刊。
In this paper we are concerned with cyclical properties and welfare of time-consistent fiscal policy in a fairly general economy with internal and external public debt and po- litical turnover. We explore the general equilibrium effects of the response of elastic labor supply and capital accumulation, the sustainability of the public debt and ma- nipulation of the bond price, the time-consistency of the optimal policy, and the added impact of the political cycle. In our baseline economy, fiscal policy is mildly pro-cyclical under external debt, and highly pro-cyclical under internal debt. We identify political cycles in taxation and government spending for the U.S. and some other advanced economies. A political cycle in taxation could be welfare improving, and adds substan- tially more volatility to economic aggregates under external debt. A political cycle in government spending is only welfare improving under internal debt, and adds roughly the same volatility under external and internal debt.